Discover the World News Forecast . . . FIRST in Foresight Journalism

IRAQ 28 Jul 2012 Mandate for UN Assistance Mission for Iraq due to end

The renewal of the United Nations Assistance Mission for Iraq comes up for a vote in July, and the circumstance will be very dif

July 28, 2012 - NULL

IRAQ 28 Jul 2012 Mandate for UN Assistance Mission for Iraq due to end

The renewal of the United Nations Assistance Mission for Iraq comes up for a vote in July, and the circumstance will be very different from the UN vote of any other year since UNAMI was established. In July, for the first time, there will be virtually no foreign troops occupying the country. The decision might rest on whether civil war breaks out once the last of the occupiers leave. At least one US expert regards civil was as unlikely. A Kurdish leader and others are more

IRAQ 28 Jul 2012 Mandate for UN Assistance Mission for Iraq due to end

The renewal of the United Nations Assistance Mission for Iraq comes up for a vote in July, and the circumstance will be very different from the UN vote of any other year since UNAMI was established. In July, for the first time, there will be virtually no foreign troops occupying the country. The decision might rest on whether civil war breaks out once the last of the occupiers leave. At least one US expert regards civil was as unlikely. A Kurdish leader and others are more pessimistic.

Brett McGurk served on the national security staffs of Presidents George W. Bush and Barack Obama and as a senior adviser to three US ambassadors in Baghdad. In an opinion piece in the Washington Post on Nov 3, he disagreed with critics who charge that the full withdrawal of US troops in Dec 2011 is a defeat for the United State and a victory for Iran, and leaves Iraq vulnerable to a rekindled civil war. They could not be more wrong, he said, noting that even a small residual US force might have fueled recruitment to Iranian-backed extremist groups.

After 18 people died in blasts in Baghdad in October, Masoud Barzani, President of the Kurdistan region of Iraq, warned of civil war. As quoted in Al Bawaba on 27 Oct, he believes the withdrawal of US troops from Iraq paves the way to a civil war. Although violence has ebbed considerably since the height of Iraq's sectarian slaughter, questions remain about Iraq's ability to deal with militants

Even if Barzani and like-thinking experts are right, the United Nations might still renew the UNAMI mandate: it has been renewed it every year despite slaughter that approached civil war at times. And it was renewed in 2003 despite an attack on UN headquarters in Baghdad that killed 22 people. (WRITTEN Nov 2011)

RELATED READING:

Not an end, but a beginning in Iraq (Washington Post 3 Nov 2011)
http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/not-an-end-but-a-beginning-in-iraq/2011/11/03/gIQA1jBqjM_story.html

Barzani warns of civil war as 18 die in Baghdad blasts (AlBawaba 27 Oct 2011)
http://www.albawaba.com/news/barzani-warns-civil-war-18-die-baghdad-blasts-398902

UNAMI
http://www.uniraq.org/

Date written/update: 2012-07-28